Spongpad's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.77
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Spongpad bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
- Will Representative George Santos still be a member of the House of Representatives at the start of December 4, 2023?NOṀ100
- NFL Week 3 (Sep. 21st-25th 2023) : 5 Game Mini Parlay (2,000 Mana Subsidy Bonus-See Description)YESṀ50
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida before the end of August?YESṀ50
40%
- Will Rep. George Santos (R-NY) remain in office until the scheduled end of his Congressional term?NOṀ100
- Will Rep. George Santos (R-NY) remain in office until the scheduled end of his Congressional term?NOṀ100
- Will Rep. George Santos (R-NY) remain in office until the scheduled end of his Congressional term?NOṀ100
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%