MANIFOLD
Which of the following Congolese cities will be controlled by the M23 group on January 1st, 2026?
6
Ṁ1kṀ3.4k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES
Goma
Resolved
YES
Bukavu
Resolved
NO
Butembo
Resolved
NO
Kisangani
Resolved
NO
Kinshasa

I will use mainstream news outlets such as Reuters, Al Jazeera, and the BBC to make a resolution.


If control is disputed, I will use my own discretion to resolve in favour of the party which holds the largest part of the city.

If any cities are held by the official Rwandan military, I will resolve them as if they were held by M23.

If any cities are held by any other force which media consensus regards as allied with M23 against the present government, I will resolve them as if they were held by M23.

If a new government is installed in Kinshasa which is considered to be a client of the M23 group and/or Rwanda, I will regard the capital, and any other cities over which the new government has control, to have been captured.

For reference, at the time of question creation, the cities of Goma and Bukavu would resolve YES, and the others would resolve NO.

I am happy to add additional cities if they become relevant to the conflict or if there is interest from traders.

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