Resolution criteria

The game is scheduled for Sunday, January 25, 2026, at 1 p.m. MT on CBS. The market resolves YES if the Patriots win by 2 or more points. The market resolves NO if the Broncos win by any margin or if the Patriots win by exactly 1 point. Resolution will be determined by the final official score as reported by ESPN, NFL.com, or CBS Sports.

Background

The Broncos are facing the Patriots with backup Jarrett Stidham slated to start after top-seeded Denver's QB Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury. The Patriots are 4.5-point favorites. The Patriots are 0-4 in the postseason in Denver, though Denver won both of the previous AFC Championship meetings between these teams, which came at Empower Field at Mile High. The Patriots are led by MVP candidate Drake Maye.

Considerations

The Broncos lost starting QB Bo Nix to a season-ending ankle injury but will have Jarrett Stidham step into the starting role. Stidham was drafted by the Patriots in 2019 and spent his rookie year developing behind Tom Brady before being traded away. This is a significant quarterback downgrade for Denver, which may impact the game's outcome more than the current spread suggests.