This is essentially the same thing as this.
https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-is-robin-hansons-confidence-in?r=S3JhbnR6
I think we ought have predictions like this for all famous role models.
This one is for Jesus Christ instead of @RobinHanson.
It will only resolve if Jesus returns and defines concrete confidences within the krantz demonstration mechanism.
1,000
@JasonQ Can you explain to me in detail how creating a market for individuals to speculate on what the public's interpretation of the historical figure Jesus Christ's beliefs were, is somehow delusional?
Seems like you're just associating the significance of the historical figure with the function of the mechanism.
You should be less confident in your interpretation of my aims.
It's just a survey about Jesus.
Rather, a prediction about the results of a survey on what individuals perceive his beliefs would be today.
@JasonQ If it's delusional to believe that we could incentivize all the Christians to print a new currency, that doubles for the mechanistically interpretable decentralized constitutional gofai normative alignment data for a decentralized futarchy that evoles into decentralized constitutional intelligence, by asking them to take a survey about what analytic philosophy they think Jesus Christ subscribed to, call me delusional.
It would work though.