Kormann's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -5.8
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Kormann bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024?NOṀ50
30%
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ300
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024?NOṀ50
40%
50%
70%
80%
90%
95%