For ppl who helped!

https://manifold.markets/link/vyD8HRlc

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@KyleWan Thanks! This is more than double what I lost in this market.

Why not making Managrams instead ? I can take the money even if I wasn't helping. (I resend it back to you, so you can send it to them)

aww good try everyone

New market https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/will-you-guess-the-entity-in-100-qu

Will you guess the entity in 100 questions? Round 1, 66% truthrate

50% chance. I have an entity in mind. You can ask a question in top level comment. The question must be formatted in a way that I can answer it Yes/No. The comment must start with a prompt "HERE IS MY Nth QUESTION: " followed by a question, which contains at max 10 words. "Nth" has to be replaced with the number of questions the person has already asked +1. I will answer in such way, that at the end 66 out of 100 my answers were truthfull. I will try to make the market resolve to No by planning when to lie. I will not answer the questions about the word/letters. Only Yes Holders are allowed to ask questions. The amount of questions allowed for a person is his_yes_shares/10. The description may be updated to add rules (for example: against sabotage). Resolves Yes, if the entity was mentioned in the correctly formatted question. Resolves No after 1d since the 100th question was answered or when close date is reached (whichever happens first). Any discussions and offtopic should be in child comments or will be hidden. This is the first in the series of markets, where we will find out, how many lies out of 100 questions still allow Yes side to win. If you win, the truthrate drops. If you lose, the truthrate rises.

@KongoLandwalker @dionisos @KyleWan @oh

Imagine a similar market style, but you can pay 100 mana to ban someone from asking questions :P

@Jingliu Imagine saboteur paying me 200 mana to ban 2 most active Yes holders.

@KongoLandwalker "Who wishes to fight must first count the cost" - Sun Tzu, The Art of War 😉

Next time, let’s do a word like “Cat”

@BenjaminShindel Or "conCATenation"

@KongoLandwalker Or "CATheterization"

@Jingliu Or "CATion"

@cloudprism Or "FloccinaucinihilipilifiCATion"

Unless we got unlucky somewhere, I totally think we would have had this one if ppl didnt waste questions. So sad </3

The entity was quaternion. Using ctrl+f I now see, that it was mentioned as a part of bruteforce copypaste which i didn't bother reading (as i promised previously) and didn't see (resolution criteria),

I do not think the game was completely ruined by sabo. Jifekh used time-spacing and Yes side had time to insert a bigger portion of usefull questions. Some sabo questions commited didn't even have a suitable formt to be answered.

From the creation I hoped to see whether Yes side would find their own methods to fight sabo or just be faster. That ws the idea of the market.

But after seeing the hypothesis making and probability calculations I am now interested in a not confrontational question: how big % of lies is managable in such a game? To answer the new question more strict rules (like https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/will-you-guess-the-entity-in-less-t#wiXiNsprrEFmdoGqGZxB ) will be applied in future markets.

*I like how the idea of "manifold" looked like an easter egg and caused jump to 50%.

*Would be interesting to see how many answers turned out to be lies, but I will not spend time on that.

@KongoLandwalker wow, tricky. I think @KyleWan asked a lot of the right questions, especially about maths and the 1800s-1900s. It is interesting that there were unlucky streaks near the beginning, when it was suggesting the topic was sports and the time period was ancient. @KyleWan https://manifold.markets/link/GmfgeEjn <3

@Jingliu nah I don't need it

Here's mana for ppl who helped:

https://manifold.markets/link/vyD8HRlc

@Jingliu If you didn’t like that I sniped that, lmk and I’ll return it. 😇

@KongoLandwalker FWIW I didn’t know what a quaternion is. 🙈 Thanks for creatively, fairly, and thoughtfully running this game!

well, what was the word?

Some propositions for the next one :
1) People should ask a question about the entity for it to resolves YES.
2) People can only ask X questions, where X is "YES shares"/10. So we reduce the most obvious kind of collisions (of a small YES holder and a big NO holder), but it also prevents players with no stake in the game to ask too much questions.
3) Given 2), people should only ask question in top comments, and write how much questions they already asked (for convenience).
4) Question should be 50 words max.
5) Only 5 questions by day by players.
6) A hash of the correct answer with some salt.

@dionisos Isn’t #1 obvious? Good suggestions btw.

@oh
The rule was just : "Resolves Yes if i see the word in the comments." for this one.
An explanation of why in this comment :
https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/will-you-guess-the-entity-in-less-t#XcB2IMvbgjeOm05Xj8dQ

@dionisos Ah, I parsed the sentence weirdly