Will Vladimir Putin in 2023?
resolved Dec 17

Resolves YES if after the market creation and before the EOY 2023 there appears a video, where Putin with his own hand puts in some solid object into other object.

This counts:

  • Put key in a lock

  • Put in a coin into a vending machine

  • Etc.

Does not count (not physical interactions):

  • Put in effort/time

  • Put somebody in jail

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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@KongoLandwalker putting a lid on a pen (i.e. putting the pen into its lid)?

@chrisjbillington oh no, you spotted it too
(I'm still waiting for a payout from Orlando so I can bet 😭😭😭)
this definitely meets resolution criteria imo

@shankypanky I am not betting much without confirmation lol. Rules lawyering on questions like this is against the spirit IMHO. Really wanted to find something clearer!

bought Ṁ24 of YES

@chrisjbillington I liked to imagine the suggestion in an earlier comment - that he physically throws someone into a jail cell lol

bought Ṁ300 of YES

@chrisjbillington but yeah, he does even move the pen into the lid rather than the other way around. And it's a large lid. It's pretty good!

predicted YES

he spent three hours moving the cap and pen around in front of him 😅😅

@chrisjbillington @shankypanky pen and lid are solid objects, sounds suitable. Could you refer to where i can see the video (and timestamp)?

bought Ṁ150 of YES

somewhere around here: https://youtu.be/Yy3QpLv0YZw?t=11917

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@KongoLandwalker 🥳

3:31:50 here:


This is from a Q&A he did the other day, this youtube video was streamed live.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington hilarious it happens twice then - the time I spotted is 3:19:34 ish


Magnificent work guys

What if he hands something off to another person’s hand (eg. pencil to someone else)

predicted YES

@cc6 my intention was that both the object and the reciever object are inanimate. Also handing off takes two people for an action, not specifically him.

What if he puts somebody into jail by grabbing them and physically forcing them into the jail?

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr would count, becausd it becomes a physical interaction.

predicted YES

If you find an appropriate video you can immediately post a comment here. I am not interested in watching every Putin speech. This market resolution depends on the bettors being attentive.

Hand in pocket?

@Dach not counting. Hand is not a separate object and it sounds silly, because he has to do the putting with his own hand.

I emphasize that hand must be visible. If there is a video cut and the object is already in its destination, it does not count.

Papers in a folder?

@nickten counts if it is in the camera frame.

predicted YES

@nickten I've been thinking about it. If he places papers ON an open folder, that would not be enough. The folder should also be closed for the paper to be considered "IN".