Will the number of traders here be a prime number at the closure?
resolved May 30

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
MayMeta avatar
MayMetapredicted NO

Damn it, I could've sworn that the close date was June 1st and I have more time

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

28 dangerous position for the no holders. Guess they hope 2+ people trade in last few seconds.

If there are 4 of us waiting to pounce, perhaps we would be better all agreeing to bid no?

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

If anyone new is thinking of betting yes, then I advise posting here so we don't bet and lose.

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoe

Does the resolution criteria count the number of traders who have traded or the number of non-zero positions held at the time of close?

i.e. if there have been 18 unique traders in the market and then one of them sells their position such that there are only 17 positions left. Will this count as 18 or 17 at the time of close?

KongoLandwalker avatar
Kongo Landwalkerpredicted NO at 23%

@ShitakiIntaki just this number. I don't want to complicate with subtracting those who cashed out.

SavioMak avatar
Savio Makbought Ṁ10 of NO

density of prime around natural number n ~ 1/ln(n)

MayMeta avatar
MayMetapredicted NO at 24%

@SavioMak At this scale the problem should be solved discretely, and not continuously. The density of primes around 23 (+-3) is 14%, and around 40 it's 43%, i.e. it's not monotonic. Approaching a certain number of unique traders this market will actually go up, before going down again.

But it's too early to tell, we still have 5 days to go.

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoe

@MayMeta Based upon the criteria you don't ever have to worry about there being less traders, only more traders. So it seems to be more of a time decay problem for the rate of new traders joining the market and whether the last trader is prime. Selling out of all positions does not reduce the number of traders so the primary manipulation in this market is recruitment of more traders. It is certainly easier for this to resolve NO since a composite number always follows a prime greater than 2 but a prime number does not always follow a composite number.

MayMeta avatar
MayMetabought Ṁ10 of NO

@ShitakiIntaki You're right

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoe

@MayMeta the moral question is whether it is cost effective to boost this market as opposed to other illicit alternatives for recruiting unique traders.

MayMeta avatar
MayMetapredicted NO at 24%

@ShitakiIntaki 👀
I'd only boost it if I had a lot of mana stuck on NO and I was afraid to lose it all

Related markets

Will I make a market with at least 100 traders this year?66%
Will any long-term market have at least 1000 traders by the end of 2023?68%
Will this market have at least 500 traders by the end of 2023?32%
Will this market get 69 unique traders?21%
What percent of top all time manifold traders will be top all time manifold creators at market close?23%
Will I have 122+ followers at market close June 15th72%
Will my relationship market have at least 100 unique traders by the end of 2023?40%
Will any market get >10k unique traders?14%
By the end of 2023, will any other market pertaining to the number "69" get more traders than mine?43%
Will the trading bonus be increased for the first few unique traders?43%
At the end of 2023, will any of my open markets with at least 40 traders have gone for at least 2 months with no bids?41%
By the end of 2023, will my most popular market have > 200 unique traders?89%
Will trades/traders be greater than 1.5?94%
Will my experimental group of scandal markets get at least 300 traders by the end of July?33%
Will any market about the Manifold MTG tournament get at least 50 traders?61%
Will I have 90+ double digit participant open markets created by end of June? (59 now)88%
Will the #20 position on the all-time creator leaderboard have traders >10K by end of 2023?74%
Resolves to number of unique traders31%
Will sin(sin((trades-traders)) be positive?19%
Will half of the all-time top traders leaderboard have been replaced in the next two months?23%