Current state:
I treated the whole website as a social platform and was not concentrating on calibration.
The rest of the spring i will limit myself to increase diversification:
Not allowed to use limit orders.
Can bet maximum 10 mana per market per day.
Can sell shares worth of maximum 10 mana per market per day.
I treat unlinked multimarkets as separate markets, but linked multimarkets as a singular.
The rule about selling only 10 mana also works on already standing bets
If in June I have higher score than -1.25, resolves YES. Otherwise resolves NO.
If I forget about this idea and buy/sell big values, then resolves NO.
Related questions
The way Manifold calculates calibration takes bet size into account, so smaller bets will have a smaller impact on your calibration. I initially bet NO before realising that your calibration would still probably improve a bit. Still, if you want to maximise your calibration, I’d recommend not limiting yourself to such small bets.
@KongoLandwalker Hum okay
I was thinking something like your calibration will improve but the main factor is that you started optimizing for calibration. Actually I didn’t think of it first but small bets can help because they don’t move the initial probability a lot. So small bets on well calibrated market are in some sense well calibrated