Will Meta create a competitor to Twitter by the midsummer?
resolved Jul 8

If it is created, It has to come out from the beta testing into masses for the market to resolve YES.

Upd.0 Midsummer is 15 July, as hinted in the close date.

Upd.1 "Going into masses" for the purpose of the market means that a new user can enter the network 1) without being tester or anyhow affiliated with META, AND 2) without needing an invitation.

Upd.2 The app being unavailable in EU does not affect the question (because VPN exists).


Deleted: "Upd.3 Resolves after the close date."

Adding: Resolves 08july, because the conditions are met and there is no possibility to revert what's already happened.

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predicted NO

I'm not against resolving YES according to Upd.2, but I've been trying to create an account through a VPN and I haven't really succeeded yet 😭

predicted YES

@NoyaV dont create one. use ur current Instagram acc

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING I can't even download the app. I'll wait till someone uploads the APK somewhere and see if that works.

predicted YES

@NoyaV go to ur instagram account and go to search bar and type: threads
a ticket will pop up click it and see if it brings u to the download page

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING I'm not getting any ticket, nor a Threads link on the settings like I'm seeing on people's videos. I have everything up to date, so I may just need to somehow change the location my Instagram reads.

predicted YES

@NoyaV oh word ok. Good luck.

predicted YES

Downloaded... its messed up

bought Ṁ83 of NO

Ok but what if it all crashed and was removed right now

bought Ṁ5,000 of YES
predicted NO

@NoyaV @KongoLandwalker If Threads launched in the US but not the EU by midsummer, would this market still resolve YES?

bought Ṁ14 of NO
predicted YES

@JakeTeale The market description was updated: “Upd.2 The app being unavailable in EU does not affect the question (because VPN exists).”

Personally, I think that Threads’ planned launch still meets the spirit of the question. Meta isn’t billing this as a beta, and the US alone is a massive country (and it will be available in a lot more countries too.)

@nottelling2ccc Yeah, I would agree. I sold all of my No shares once he updated the resolution conditions.

predicted NO

ok so midsummer and mid-summer are two very different things, can the title at least be edited? Because according to most sources it has either already passed since June 23/24.

predicted YES

@JonahKrompart title will not be changed. Midsummer not being the same as "middle of calendar summer season" would be inconsistent, because summer is mostly used as a set of 3 calendar months, not as an astronomical period of specific orientation. Why would I create a dependency on summer solstice and not on calendar summer?

I understand, that for people measuring length in feet that might be surprising, so I updated the description.

predicted NO

@KongoLandwalker why not just change the title to be an unambiguous "by July 16"

In most of Europe summer starts on the 21st of June, not on the 1st

predicted NO

@KongoLandwalker Ok so when I assumed the literal middle of summer on the calendar I wasn’t the crazy one, cool.

predicted YES

@Odoacre 1) because any good predictor has to read fully, not base his prediction only on the title.

2) Because I want to keep the wording I used when I made a prediction. I created this market not because I was interested in the answer, but because I was sure it will happen, and I wanted to create an anchor/note/a proof to myself whether I predicted correctly.

predicted YES

"because any good predictor has to read fully, not base his prediction only on the title."
Naaah a good predictor doesn't need to fully read. a good predictor would just predict the rest of it of course :)

bought Ṁ5 of YES

if you have Instagram, go to the search bar and type: threads
a ticket will pop up beside it, click it.
Im not sure if there's anything special about it other than it being a countdown for it. it says thu jul 6, 10AM est. it has a QR code.

Not saying I like Meta personally, or that I think they can handle this well, but this seems like another marketing W for them.

Their image has really rebounded since 2022.

bought Ṁ65 of NO

Buying no at 98%+ purely to gamble on a week delay and 3500% returns

@JonahKrompart there's also no guarantee that the Threads release will be available to any user off the street. might start as invite-only, which doesn't seem to trigger a YES resolution

@JonahKrompart The closing time does seem early

predicted YES

@JonahKrompart July 13th isn't mid-summer.

predicted NO

@AndrewHebb Yeah the 15th is, it’s obviously close enough and not exact

predicted YES

@JonahKrompart August 7th is midsummer

predicted YES

@jeremiahsamroo doesn't matter tho

predicted YES

@jeremiahsamroo Threads is coming out in 2 days. It's already on the app store and the play store. They have a website counting down. It's a sure thing.

@jeremiahsamroo lol most places call the solstice (June 21) midsummer. it's a fluid concept 🤷

predicted NO

@jeremiahsamroo Idk where you get that bc that’s during the last month of summer so that’s a nonsense day but sure if that’s midsummer or no longer means middle of summer, also the market close date is July 15th. The middle of the middle month of summer.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ36 of NO

@higherLEVELING Yeah close enough, wanna convince the creator to close off of that date instead 😂

predicted YES

@JonahKrompart midsummer if its june 21 or any date in june, this market should be a no.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@JonahKrompart im agreeing this is wild.

predicted YES

@JonahKrompart Summer is June 21st to September 23rd, which makes mid-summer August 7th.

predicted YES

@JonahKrompart August is closer to being the middle month of summer than July.

predicted NO

@AndrewHebb How the fuck is summer this complicated 😭