If it is created, It has to come out from the beta testing into masses for the market to resolve YES.
Upd.0 Midsummer is 15 July, as hinted in the close date.
Upd.1 "Going into masses" for the purpose of the market means that a new user can enter the network 1) without being tester or anyhow affiliated with META, AND 2) without needing an invitation.
Upd.2 The app being unavailable in EU does not affect the question (because VPN exists).
Upd4:
Deleted: "Upd.3 Resolves after the close date."
Adding: Resolves 08july, because the conditions are met and there is no possibility to revert what's already happened.
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@higherLEVELING I can't even download the app. I'll wait till someone uploads the APK somewhere and see if that works.
@NoyaV go to ur instagram account and go to search bar and type: threads
a ticket will pop up click it and see if it brings u to the download page
@higherLEVELING I'm not getting any ticket, nor a Threads link on the settings like I'm seeing on people's videos. I have everything up to date, so I may just need to somehow change the location my Instagram reads.
@NoyaV @KongoLandwalker If Threads launched in the US but not the EU by midsummer, would this market still resolve YES?
@JakeTeale The market description was updated: “Upd.2 The app being unavailable in EU does not affect the question (because VPN exists).”
Personally, I think that Threads’ planned launch still meets the spirit of the question. Meta isn’t billing this as a beta, and the US alone is a massive country (and it will be available in a lot more countries too.)
@nottelling2ccc Yeah, I would agree. I sold all of my No shares once he updated the resolution conditions.
@JonahKrompart title will not be changed. Midsummer not being the same as "middle of calendar summer season" would be inconsistent, because summer is mostly used as a set of 3 calendar months, not as an astronomical period of specific orientation. Why would I create a dependency on summer solstice and not on calendar summer?
I understand, that for people measuring length in feet that might be surprising, so I updated the description.
@KongoLandwalker why not just change the title to be an unambiguous "by July 16"
In most of Europe summer starts on the 21st of June, not on the 1st
@KongoLandwalker Ok so when I assumed the literal middle of summer on the calendar I wasn’t the crazy one, cool.
@Odoacre 1) because any good predictor has to read fully, not base his prediction only on the title.
2) Because I want to keep the wording I used when I made a prediction. I created this market not because I was interested in the answer, but because I was sure it will happen, and I wanted to create an anchor/note/a proof to myself whether I predicted correctly.
@KongoLandwalker
"because any good predictor has to read fully, not base his prediction only on the title."
Naaah a good predictor doesn't need to fully read. a good predictor would just predict the rest of it of course :)
@JonahKrompart there's also no guarantee that the Threads release will be available to any user off the street. might start as invite-only, which doesn't seem to trigger a YES resolution
@jeremiahsamroo Threads is coming out in 2 days. It's already on the app store and the play store. They have a website counting down. It's a sure thing.
@jeremiahsamroo Idk where you get that bc that’s during the last month of summer so that’s a nonsense day but sure if that’s midsummer or no longer means middle of summer, also the market close date is July 15th. The middle of the middle month of summer.
@JonahKrompart midsummer if its june 21 or any date in june, this market should be a no.
@JonahKrompart Summer is June 21st to September 23rd, which makes mid-summer August 7th.