Kevin Lalik's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.36
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Kevin Lalik bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will there be property damage reported by the media?NOṀ50
- Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in March?YESṀ50
- Will the hololive corporate channel get the peak CCV of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 18th March, 2023?YESṀ25
80%
90%