Will Yuki Tsunoda finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
15
290Ṁ19k
resolved Nov 19
Resolved
NO

A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.

If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.

Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.

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The analysis was based on information made public by ESPN. He has played in 20 games this year, and his average ranking is 13.2th. Then, when conducting a z-test to find the probability of ranking in the top 10, z-test = -0.92134.
Using the Standard Normal Cumulative Probability Table, I find that the corresponding probability is approximately 0.17879.
In other words, the probability that Yuki Tsunoda will be ranked 10th in the next match is 17.88%. Therefore, bet on NO.

https://www.espn.com/racing/driver/raceresults/_/id/5652/yuki-tsunoda

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