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alright - I'm resolving YES on the basis that she recovered from the initial surgery, even if she has cancer now, it was discovered after the surgery was complete.

wait so this official video doesn't resolve this market? seems like an obvious yes.

https://twitter.com/KensingtonRoyal/status/1771235267837321694

Kate Middleton has cancer: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/world/europe/princess-kate-middleton-cancer.html

I feel like an idiot now because I don't know that I clarified the question in enough detail to resolve it fairly, which is why I closed it - you'd be betting more now on my criteria for resolving the question than on anything that happens in the world.

Like, if she is in public before July 1, but bald or wearing a hat she would be "smiling, normal skin color, taking normal strides" but very much not "recovered."

I am leaning toward just returning everyone their money.

@KevinBurke I understood the question to mean "recovered from surgery". Was that not the intent?

FWIW, the timeline is pretty straightforward. She went in for surgery, they didn't realize it was cancer, and then only then did they discover it was cancerous. The chemotherapy/cancer is fairly separate from her recovery from surgery. Whether or not she recovers from the recently started chemo (or cancer) feels pretty distinct.

(Personally I don't mind N/A if you don't feel like the spirit/intent of your question is clear, although I'd be pretty baffled by a NO resolution)

@Ziddletwix Occam's Razor suggests the abdominal surgery was related to the cancer discovery in which case it's not clear that she recovered.

@KevinBurke Oh they definitely say that they discovered the cancer in the course of surgery! But it feels kinda strange to say that she never "recovered" because in the course of surgery, they discovered a separate issue and then months later underwent medical treatments for that issue. Plus, the question does include a definition for what it means to be "looking recovered":

"looking recovered (smiling, normal skin color, taking normal strides)

Which is a pretty low bar. (I mean, all of that was easily cleared by the original farm video, but in the exchange below this didn't resolve YES because the question was whether the farm video was doctored? Obviously, no video of her walking around on a farm could ever prove that she didn't secretly have another health condition. No video of her doing anything could have proven that, so if that's the evidentiary bar, "video evidence" would have been irrelevant, right?)

Regardless, i'm always fine with N/A if stuff was unclear. But I can't really follow the idea that because they discover cancer in the course of surgery, she somehow... never recovers from surgery, because that cancer required chemotherapy in the future? If they had discovered some chronic health condition, would she have never "recovered" for the rest of her life?

Also, side note, I specifically asked in the comments below "Kate just needs to show up in any other footage within the next few months?" (because I wanted to make sure I understood the edge cases), and got a "Yes" in reply, which seems pretty unambiguous to me. There was no mention of "what if she's actually not still fully healthy from another issue". but again, totally happy with N/A if you feel the question wasn't well defined.

ah just caught up on this. she's recovered from surgery and that was the reason she was initially off the map so I don't know how further diagnoses conflict with this resolution. if she recovered from surgery but broke her hand tripping and falling in an unrelated accident, would this affect the resolution? she had major abdominal surgery according to reports but she seems to meet all of this criteria (as Ziddle pointed out)

Resolves YES if undoctored, contemporary, evidence of Kate Middleton sitting and talking, or standing, or walking unassisted, and looking recovered (smiling, normal skin color, taking normal strides)

she recovered and now has a new journey ahead of her.

https://amp.tmz.com/2024/03/18/kate-middleton-seen-new-video-windsor-farm-shop-prince-william/

Does this count?

( I admit I didn't believe the "farm" story but actually it seems like it might be real)

@Ziddletwix Yes, though maybe not enough to hold up in court if it’s the only evidence. if it's March and we have until July, it's likely more evidence will come out. I will wait for additional information to ensure I'm resolving correctly

@KevinBurke I've made a market for anyone who wants to bet that this video is fake.

@Joshua So to be clear, this (current) market is FAR less restrictive than that (new) one? This one resolves YES even if that video is in fact faked—Kate just needs to show up in any other footage within the next few months.

(Obvs different resolvers so in practice they might diverge, but in theory IIUC this current market should be even more certain than that one)

@Ziddletwix Well I did just put up a YES limit order at 95% here.

@Ziddletwix Yes

https://x.com/MattSunRoyal/status/1769486825863737592?s=20

source @Ziddletwix

@mattyb “Seen in autumn”… this is not convincing

@KevinBurke yea, i don’t think it’s a yes resolve yet, by any means. but we’re getting closer

(this does not qualify)