SEC wins its case against Coinbase
81
15k
2031
55%
chance

SEC has charged Coinbase with 5 different offenses, including operating an unregistered securities exchange, and offering unregistered securities to the public. https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2023/comp-pr2023-102.pdf, https://slate.com/technology/2023/06/coinbase-binance-sec-cryptocurrency-securities-law-crackdown.html

Resolves YES if the SEC wins any of the 5 charges it filed against Coinbase, or if Coinbase settles with terms that indicate a substantial concession, for example, a payout greater than $50 million and an agreement to not sell to US consumers, or something along those lines.

Since this case involves editorial judgment on the "substantial concession" provision, I won't bet in the market. Feel free to ask questions to help narrow down what "substantial" means.

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predicts NO

SEC v. @Coinbase Update

The hearing on Coinbase’s Motion for Judgment on the Pleadings will be held on Wednesday, Jan 17. There are four possible outcomes, with potential permutations to each: https://twitter.com/MetaLawMan/status/1746187846191321163

I should've read the reso criteria closer

It would be weird if at least one of the charges didn't land