Will Apple stock close above $200 before the end of 2023?
resolved Dec 30

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bought Ṁ980 of NO

@KerryGriggs Please resolve, thanks.

predicted NO

Is this resolved at closing today? I need profit for Jimmy Carter 😄

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Apple lost a patent case in a fairly significant way, which is forcing sales stoppages, and is now at 194.83, suggesting a correlated dip in confidence here. $200 in 2024, maybe, not 2023. https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1220125508/apple-watch-series-9-ultra-2-masimo-patent

predicted YES


bought Ṁ20 of YES

$197.96 now.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

This market will close before Monday’s session, so no more opportunities to incorporate pricing info other than perhaps Sunday evening index futures (a pretty weak correlation). However, there’s a ton of ways to hedge an unlucky guess here:

/CivilizedGuy/will-apple-aapl-stock-close-above-2 (duplicate but closes the night before last session)

/GregoryStirling/will-apple-stock-break-200-in-2024 (an extra year to spare, also closing price)

/deagol/will-apple-stock-aapl-fully-break-2-7e0be61add86 (no deadline unless it tanks, but requires a full break i.e. intraday low>200)

/deagol/will-apple-stock-aapl-hit-200-befor (no deadline lower bound likely irrelevant, triggered by intraday high)

/nic_kup/will-aapl-hit-200-before-hitting-10 (same as above but for closing price)

/MarkLindsay/will-apple-inc-aapl-close-2023-at-o (only about the last session close >200 not any day before i.e. 200= roughly 50%)

/CalisuriofTORn/will-aapl-apple-stock-be-equal-or-o (similar to above but about the next to last session close, and lower bar)

Edit: one more /TonyPepperoni/what-will-apples-stock-price-be-at-b6aa3d3fdbc2

bought Ṁ36 of NO

Ok got extended. Thanks @KerryGriggs

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Current price $195.71, only 2.22% jump required for this to resolve YES!!

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@deagol not feeling bullish on this market?

bought Ṁ82 YES from 36% to 48%
predicted NO

@esusatyo i’m wary of the early close date, but also the recent melt up might cool down.

predicted NO

@esusatyo also it needs to close above 200, intraday could hit it and profit takers pull it back for the close

bought Ṁ82 of YES

@esusatyo alright I bought since I can hedge with this mirror open until the day before:

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Apple has been the most valuable company by market cap but not by stock price. Looking at 14 stock price changes in apple from even though the stock price has been increasing gradually from October 27th to November 15th and calculating the probability of the stock price crossing the $200 mark by using the NORM-DIST function assuming a normal distribution for the continuous data. The probability of hitting $200 is just 0.6% so I will bet a NO. Also the percentage rate of change between the stock prices between these day have been small ( between -1% and 0.02%)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

No. The apple stock price didn't hit 200 in the announce date and the release date of iphone 15, I don't think it will hit 200 before the end of 2023.


@Herbert Hi Herbert, I disagree with the answer. Not only on the reason you stated since the Apple stock can reach over 200 in any day until the end of 2023 and it doesn’t have to be during the iPhone release date, but also because of statistics on historical data.  As of November 10th close Apple stock is at $186.40, this means the stock price has to increase 7.4% in the last 51 days of the year. If we see Apple monthly returns, we can identify that in 40% of the last 5 years of monthly data, Apple has returned 7% or higher, which means this kind of volatility in Apple’s stock is common. Also, using the historical 51 days returns from the last 5 years. Apple stock has risen more than 7% in 45% of the cases. Therefore, even though a price of a volatile stock like Apple is impossible to predict and knowing the fact that it has risen already +9% month-to-date, history data and statistics state that Apple stock could close higher than 200 before year end.  

predicted YES


predicted YES

Why the close on 11/11 instead of the end of the year?

bought Ṁ47 of NO

@KerryGriggs can you address the early closing date of this market?

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