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Apple lost a patent case in a fairly significant way, which is forcing sales stoppages, and is now at 194.83, suggesting a correlated dip in confidence here. $200 in 2024, maybe, not 2023. https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1220125508/apple-watch-series-9-ultra-2-masimo-patent
This market will close before Monday’s session, so no more opportunities to incorporate pricing info other than perhaps Sunday evening index futures (a pretty weak correlation). However, there’s a ton of ways to hedge an unlucky guess here:
/CivilizedGuy/will-apple-aapl-stock-close-above-2 (duplicate but closes the night before last session)
/GregoryStirling/will-apple-stock-break-200-in-2024 (an extra year to spare, also closing price)
/deagol/will-apple-stock-aapl-fully-break-2-7e0be61add86 (no deadline unless it tanks, but requires a full break i.e. intraday low>200)
/deagol/will-apple-stock-aapl-hit-200-befor (no deadline lower bound likely irrelevant, triggered by intraday high)
/nic_kup/will-aapl-hit-200-before-hitting-10 (same as above but for closing price)
/MarkLindsay/will-apple-inc-aapl-close-2023-at-o (only about the last session close >200 not any day before i.e. 200= roughly 50%)
/CalisuriofTORn/will-aapl-apple-stock-be-equal-or-o (similar to above but about the next to last session close, and lower bar)
Edit: one more /TonyPepperoni/what-will-apples-stock-price-be-at-b6aa3d3fdbc2
@esusatyo i’m wary of the early close date, but also the recent melt up might cool down.
@esusatyo also it needs to close above 200, intraday could hit it and profit takers pull it back for the close
Apple has been the most valuable company by market cap but not by stock price. Looking at 14 stock price changes in apple from even though the stock price has been increasing gradually from October 27th to November 15th and calculating the probability of the stock price crossing the $200 mark by using the NORM-DIST function assuming a normal distribution for the continuous data. The probability of hitting $200 is just 0.6% so I will bet a NO. Also the percentage rate of change between the stock prices between these day have been small ( between -1% and 0.02%)
No. The apple stock price didn't hit 200 in the announce date and the release date of iphone 15, I don't think it will hit 200 before the end of 2023.
@Herbert Hi Herbert, I disagree with the answer. Not only on the reason you stated since the Apple stock can reach over 200 in any day until the end of 2023 and it doesn’t have to be during the iPhone release date, but also because of statistics on historical data. As of November 10th close Apple stock is at $186.40, this means the stock price has to increase 7.4% in the last 51 days of the year. If we see Apple monthly returns, we can identify that in 40% of the last 5 years of monthly data, Apple has returned 7% or higher, which means this kind of volatility in Apple’s stock is common. Also, using the historical 51 days returns from the last 5 years. Apple stock has risen more than 7% in 45% of the cases. Therefore, even though a price of a volatile stock like Apple is impossible to predict and knowing the fact that it has risen already +9% month-to-date, history data and statistics state that Apple stock could close higher than 200 before year end.
nevermind