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I found that someone else has the exact same question as this.....

My bad lol. I'll do more research next time.

@KeegabQcosta some minor differences between this question and https://manifold.markets/RowanEvans/will-starfield-get-a-metascore-grea?r=SmFja3NvbldhZ25lcg:

1. Xbox + PC version, versus just PC version on the other question (PC metascores are generally lower than console scores, maybe by ~2 points on average?)

2. the other question talks about metascore 1 week after launch, versus in this question it's ambiguous but sounds like the ideal time to look at the metascore would be on release day? (I would guess that maybe metascores drift slightly downwards over time, since maybe the initial publications which have been given preview access are more enthusiastic than the later reviewers? But this is just a thought, idk...)

3. "85 or higher" includes a score of exactly 85, while "greater than 85" does not.

All told, that is an effective difference of maybe 2-3 metascore points, making this question a slightly easier bar for Starfield to clear? Thus, the probability on this question ought to be slightly higher than for the other question.

Will Starfield get a Metascore greater than 85?

78% chance. If the PC version of Starfield has a metascore greater than 85 one week after launch, resolves to yes.