JustNo's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.12
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when JustNo bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
- Will any Democrat vote in support of the next Speaker of the House?NOṀ200
- Will Representative Patrick McHenry be given more broad powers as speaker pro tempore of the House of Representatives?NOṀ150
- Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
40%
50%
60%
- Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?NOṀ187
- Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?NOṀ158
- Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%