Mount Spurr significant eruption by date?
42%
Before August 2025
47%
Before May 2026
50%
After 2028
56%
Before 2029
Resolved
NO
Before April 2025
Resolved
NO
Before May 2025

Resolves according to https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcano-updates

Background

Mount Spurr is an active stratovolcano located in the Aleutian Range of Alaska, about 80 miles (130 km) west of Anchorage. Its most recent significant eruptions occurred in 1953 and a series of three eruptions in 1992 (June 27, August 18, and September). The 1992 eruptions affected Anchorage with ashfall, particularly the August 18 event.

Scientists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory have recently noted increased activity at Mount Spurr, suggesting a potential eruption in the coming weeks or months. The volcano is monitored closely due to its proximity to Anchorage, Alaska's largest city.

The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is used to measure the size of volcanic eruptions:

  • Mount Spurr's previous significant eruptions have typically been in the VEI 2-3 range

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on when (or if) Mount Spurr experiences a significant eruption, as reported by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program through their official updates page: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcano-updates

For resolution purposes, a "significant eruption" will be defined as one that:

  1. Is officially documented by the USGS or Alaska Volcano Observatory

  2. Produces measurable ash, lava flows, or other eruptive products

The market will resolve to all applicable time periods.

If no significant eruption occurs before the end of 2028, the market will resolve to "After 2028."

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