Will Runes be the top-performing archetype in the alchemy portion of the Neon Dynasty Set Championship?

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resolved Mar 13

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Among archetypes with at least a 10% metagame share in the alchemy portion, I will identify the archetype with the highest non-mirror winrate. Most likely I will rely on the mtgdata winrate matrix published after the tournament to group the decks into archetypes and answer this question, or if not available I will do it myself. If the majority of the decks in this top-performing archetype contain the card "runeforge champion", I will resolve this question to yes, otherwise, no. Close date updated to 2022-03-13 11:59 pm

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Brad Nelson's Twitter: https://twitter.com/fffreakmtg/status/1501243785954697224 > My #NEOChamps Alchemy Metagame Prediction: > > 25% Runes > 30% Decks that think they beat runes, but don't. > 20% Decks that think they beat runes, and do. > 15% Decks that beat the non-Runes garbage piles. > 10% Runes

andrei is the wisest zoomer for a reason

Maybe, but I am still interested to see how people's opinions change as more information gets revealed. Why such a confident NO? There are only a couple decks over 10%

I believe that not closing this market at deck registration deadline was a mistake.

decklists are in so I can comment a bit, and I think there could be enough people accidentally playing things that don't actually beat runes that 20% seems low

To anyone interested in this question, some helpful resources include: - MTG Meta: https://mtgmeta.io/ - The Untapped.gg metagame breakdown (performance for bo3 and at mythic rank unfortunately requires their paid Premium service): https://mtga.untapped.gg/meta/tierlist Personally I'd trust the Untapped data more as it's based on users with the Untapped app, which is a) popular among high-ranking MTGA players and b) IIRC by the same devs of an incredibly popular app that does similar things in Hearthstone.

I know very little about the format but between the chance of someone breaking it and an established deck beating up on Runes I favor NO at ~20%.

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