Julian M's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.85
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Julian M bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
10%
30%
40%
50%
- Will the number of shares held on this market be a multiple of 3, 5, or 7 at market close?NOṀ40
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?YESṀ35
- 18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?NOṀ35
60%
80%
90%
95%
97%