What will be the male ratio of Monkeypox cases from September 1st to September 7th?
Monkeypox
8
13
Ṁ441
resolved Sep 19
Resolved
0.92

According to https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/andrewmvd/global-monkeypox-cases , the male ratio of Monkeypox' cases last week is 0.98 (1 non-male patients for 68 males).

For now, Monkeypox is mainly spreading through sexual contact within the community of men having sex frequently with male strangers.

For lack of dataset on this, I cannot directly ask what will be the ratio between infections through sex vs otherwise, so I am using gender imbalance as a very imperfect proxy. I will mostly look at Kaggle's dataset and corroborate it with others.

This process will be open for anyone to interject and add data that could have been missed in the analysis: After close, I will first expose how I intend to resolve and wait for objections before doing so.

My betting policy ( https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO ): Betting as usual. Since the resolution will be participatory, I do not think I have any insider knowledge into this.

Jul 25, 1:52am:

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ20
2Ṁ12
3Ṁ8
4Ṁ0
5Ṁ0
15 Comments
7 Holders
16 Trades
Sort by:

import kaggle

import pandas as pd

kaggle.api.authenticate()

kaggle.api.dataset_download_file('andrewmvd/global-monkeypox-cases', file_name='monkeypox_df.csv', path='Others/data/')

df = pd.read_csv('Others/data/monkeypox_df.csv.zip', parse_dates=['Date_confirmation', 'Date_onset', 'Date_hospitalisation'])

q = df[(df['Date_confirmation'] >= datetime(2022, 9, 1)) & (df['Date_confirmation'] <= datetime(2022, 9, 7))]

q['Gender'].value_counts()

Shows 3 female patients for 36 males. Therefore I intend to resolve to 0.92.

Does anyone have any objections to this?

@JoyVoid Since no one seems to be objecting, I'll go ahead and resolve to 0.92

bought Ṁ301 of HIGHER
>>> import kaggle >>> import pandas as pd >>> kaggle.api.authenticate() >>> kaggle.api.dataset_download_file('andrewmvd/global-monkeypox-cases', file_name='monkeypox_df.csv', path='Others/data/') >>> df = pd.read_csv('Others/data/monkeypox_df.csv.zip') >>> count = df['Gender'].value_counts() >>> print(f'Male count: {count["Male"]}') >>> print(f'Female count: {count["Female"]}') >>> print(f'Proportion: {count["Male"]/(count["Male"] + count["Female"]):.4f}') Currently outputs: >>> Male count: 1320 >>> Female count: 16 >>> Proportion: 0.9880 more detailed info: (male: 1320, female: 16, 2022-06-06: 1, NaN: 11337) As you can see, there is one patient that has a date as gender (patient ",", between patient N1079 and patient N1080). I think someone made a mistake somewhere :P So if we include that non-person, the 0.980 ratio changes a bit. But I don't think it should count :P (I would appreciate tips!)
I am confused what you are reporting exactly? Are you saying I made a mistake in my description by including date as a gender? (I also used pandas to calculate it) Also keep in mind the market is _not_ resolving to total male over total but to male (week from September 1st to september 7th) / total (week from September 1st to September 7th)
@JoyVoid Oh sorry for not being clear. I just wanted to share the info with other people who might've wanted it, because I personally appreciate it when others share this kind of info. I don't think you made a mistake in your description at all. Also, thanks for specifying that last part, you're right that I thought that you would resolve to the full proportion, not just the week-1-September proportion!
(Yeah, I would edit the title if I could, but append-only) Thanks for your work then :D !
For contet ``` from datetime import datetime import kaggle import pandas as pd kaggle.api.authenticate() kaggle.api.dataset_download_file('andrewmvd/global-monkeypox-cases', file_name='monkeypox_df.csv', path='Others/data/') df = pd.read_csv('Others/data/monkeypox_df.csv.zip', parse_dates=['Date_confirmation', 'Date_onset']) q = df[(df['Date_confirmation'] >= datetime(2022, 7, 1)) & (df['Date_confirmation'] <= datetime(2022, 7, 7))] q['Gender'].value_counts() ``` Gives 79 males for 79 cases.
Hmm, do you all think I should mark this as N/A and recreate a new one that had a better prior and more explicit criterion resolution? Or is that au contraire actually robbing people off their bets? I'm noticing that gains from betting YES is dismal because of the liquidity imbalance
@JoyVoid I don't think you should mark this one as NA. I think that as long as the market resolves the way you corrected, it's fine. I don't think you should have updated the resolution criterion in the first place, but after doing it, maintaining the market with the new resolution is what counts. People (me especially) who don't read the fine print of these questions deserve to lose money in expectation :P
@BionicD0LPH1N Thanks for the input. I guess the only way to edit something when you realize you want to correct the question in the <5 minutes you publish a market (I was thinking about one week ratio but it elluded me as I was writing the question) is to resolve it NA and reopen a new one? I'm realizing edition, especially after a short period, might be more crucial to market management than I realized
What source will you use to resolve it?
@jorge As mentionned in the description, https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/andrewmvd/global-monkeypox-cases will be a starting point, and I might agregate other cases I find in other datasets that people links here for instance, with deduplication
Should I remake the market from 0.5 to 1, starting at 0.75 and then betting to adjust? I feel like the liquidity is kinda messed up on that one
https://twitter.com/StephTaitWrites/status/1542201629788602368?s=20&t=l3igGKx0NBbVqwqmk9JpNQ https://twitter.com/MarionKoopmans/status/1544652434353561600?s=20&t=l3igGKx0NBbVqwqmk9JpNQ Seems like we may be overfocusing on the gay community
bought Ṁ4 of LOWER
See also: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-confirmed-monkeypox-cases-reac for arbitrage opportunities

Related in Monkeypox

See more Monkeypox questions

More related questions