If we cannot find an unambiguous and relevant criteria by 2025, then the question will fallback to being a Keynesian Beauty Contest (KBC). Starting the count on 2025-Jan-01, whichever of the below happens first:
If the market spends 1 calendar month >=80%, then this market would resolve as “YES” representing “1,000 atoms can be sufficient for the experience of suffering, under some design or some circumstance”.
If the market spends 1 calendar month <=20%, then this market would resolve as “NO” representing “1,000 atoms are never sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design nor any circumstance.”
But if a less ambiguous and more relevant criterion is found, then this market will “upgrade” to that. Any proposed upgrade will be discussed openly, and can be traded. I may consult with mutuals who have experience in physics, forecasting, and academic philosphy. We only switch if we think that would increase the relevance of the question, and decrease the ambiguity.
The “calendar month” is a continuous period. For example, March 4th to April 4th would count, but March 1st to March 25th would not count. There is no time limit and we do not resolve until this condition is met (unless we find better criteria).
The clause “under some design or some circumstance” is meant to be very broad. It includes anything permitted by physics. Some examples include any network layout, ways the information is transmitted, parts of the atoms used, types of randomness, energy levels, any timeframe over which the suffering “runs”, etc.
Requires that the cognition/emotion was entirely processed with 1,000 atoms worth of matter. It wouldn't count if an external system was primed to experience suffering, and was merely activated by a 1,000 atom trigger.
If suffering happens to subatomic particles or quarks, and if they weren’t part of 1,000 atoms (such as in a quark–gluon plasma), then let’s say it counts if the sum of their overall mass is less than 1,000 iron atoms (counting only the particles that were necessary for the suffering.)
Since we’ll gain insight about minds after 2025, we could make more followup questions after that.
Close date updated to 2099-12-31 6:59 pm
1,000