Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cheng Li-wun, while serving as the Chairperson of the Kuomintang (KMT), holds an in-person meeting with Xi Jinping, in his capacity as the President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), before January 1, 2028.

The market will resolve to "No" if such an in-person meeting does not occur by the specified date.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the KMT, the CCP, or verifiable reports from reputable international news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, or major Taiwanese (e.g., Central News Agency, Taipei Times) and mainland Chinese (e.g., Xinhua, People's Daily) news outlets.

Background

Cheng Li-wun was elected the new Chairperson of Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) on October 18, 2025, and is scheduled to officially assume the role on November 1, 2025, for a four-year term. She is the second woman to hold the KMT's top leadership position. During her campaign, Cheng expressed a willingness to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to promote peace and address cross-strait issues. The KMT traditionally advocates for closer relations with mainland China, and there is a precedent for its chairs meeting with CCP leaders; previous KMT Chairs, including Hung Hsiu-chu and Eric Chu, have held meetings with Xi Jinping. Additionally, former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou met with Xi Jinping in 2015 and again as a private citizen in 2024.

Considerations

Cheng Li-wun's political trajectory is notable, having started her career with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) before joining the KMT in 2005. She is regarded as a "deep blue" figure within the KMT, holding a hardline stance on cross-strait relations and advocating for a shared "Chinese" identity among Taiwanese people. Her election occurred amidst allegations of Chinese interference in the KMT's leadership contest. While she supports the "1992 Consensus," which allows for differing interpretations of "one China," she has not explicitly endorsed "unification". The political dynamics between the KMT and the ruling DPP, which does not accept the "one-China principle" and is generally wary of closer ties with Beijing, could significantly influence the potential for such a high-profile meeting.