Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Nathan Lyon takes more Test wickets than Shane Warne's final tally of 708. Warne finished with 708 from his 145 matches. Resolution will be determined by checking official Test cricket records on ESPNcricinfo or Cricket Australia once Lyon's Test career concludes.

If Lyons retires without passing Warne's total - this will resolve NO. If he subsequently unretires, it should be reopened (I have not written this is a description before - I welcome critical feedback).

Background

Nathan Lyon recently passed Glenn McGrath as Australia's second-highest wicket-taker of all time with only Shane Warne ahead of him. At that point Lyon had 564 Test wickets. The 38-year-old has said in the past that he wants to keep playing until at least the 2027 Ashes in England. Sri Lanka's Muthiah Muralidaran (800), England's James Anderson (704) and Stuart Broad (604) and India's Anil Kumble (619) are the only other bowlers in the format's history with more wickets than the 38-year-old Lyon.

Considerations

Lyon would need 145 additional wickets to surpass Warne's record. While he has expressed intent to play through 2027, his age (38) and recent injury history mean continued selection and fitness are not guaranteed. Additionally, Australia's recent preference for pace attacks in certain conditions has limited his opportunities in some matches.