Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to the individual who remains in their position as Defense Secretary or Defense Minister for the longer duration. If both individuals lose their job on the same day (per announcement), resolves 50/50
Resolves on official government statements, not rumours.
Background:
Pete Hegseth: Appointed as the 29th United States Secretary of Defense on January 25, 2025, under President Donald Trump. Hegseth, a former Army National Guard officer and Fox News host, has faced controversies, including allegations of sharing sensitive military information via unsecured channels. Despite these issues, President Trump has expressed continued support for him. (reuters.com)
Dong Jun: Appointed as China's Minister of National Defense on December 29, 2023. Dong, an admiral in the People's Liberation Army Navy, is the first naval officer to hold this position. His appointment followed the removal of his predecessor, Li Shangfu, in October 2023. (en.wikipedia.org)
Considerations:
Political Stability: Both positions are subject to political dynamics within their respective countries. Hegseth's tenure may be influenced by ongoing controversies and political support, while Dong's position could be affected by internal party decisions and military reforms in China.
Historical Context: The average tenure for U.S. Secretaries of Defense varies, with some serving only a few months and others several years. In China, the Minister of National Defense typically serves longer terms, but recent leadership changes indicate potential volatility.
Recent Developments in Defense Leadership:
1,000