Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on which countries officially announce orders for the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) sixth-generation fighter jet by the market close date. An order must be formally announced by the government of the country in question and acknowledged by the GCAP consortium.

Background

The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) is a collaborative international program to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet. It was formed in December 2022 as a partnership between the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan. The program aims to deliver a next-generation fighter aircraft by 2035, replacing current platforms like the Eurofighter Typhoon and Japan's F-2 fighters.

Current founding partner nations include:

• United Kingdom: Expected to order approximately 80-120 units to replace its Eurofighter Typhoon fleet

• Italy: Likely to order around 80-120 units to replace its Eurofighter Typhoons

• Japan: Potentially the largest operator, with estimates suggesting orders of 150-200 units to replace aging F-2 and F-15 fleets

Several other countries have expressed interest in potentially joining the program or ordering the aircraft, including Saudi Arabia, though Japan has reportedly expressed opposition to Saudi participation. Sweden and Germany have also been mentioned as potential future participants, though no formal commitments have been made.