Resolution criteria

The market will resolve based on the official winning margin of the 2025 Tour de France, as reported by the race organizers. The margin is defined as the time difference between the first and second place finishers in the general classification. The official results can be found on the Tour de France's official website: https://www.letour.fr/en/.

Background

The 2025 Tour de France is scheduled from July 5 to July 27, covering 3,338.8 kilometers over 21 stages. The route includes challenging mountain stages with summit finishes at Hautacam, Luchon-Superbagnères, Mont Ventoux, Courchevel Col de la Loze, and La Plagne Tarentaise. Additionally, there are two individual time trials: a 33 km flat course in Caen (Stage 5) and an 11 km uphill time trial to Peyragudes (Stage 13). (letour.fr)

Historically, winning margins have varied significantly. The closest finish was in 1989, when Greg LeMond won by just 8 seconds over Laurent Fignon. In contrast, the largest margin since World War II was in 1952, when Fausto Coppi won by over 28 minutes. (rouleur.cc)

Considerations

Given the demanding nature of the 2025 route, particularly the inclusion of multiple high-altitude finishes and time trials, the winning margin could be influenced by both climbing prowess and time-trialing ability. The performance of top contenders in these stages will be crucial in determining the final time gap.