Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the color of the tie worn by Xi Jinping during his meeting with KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun. If a meeting occurs, the resolution will be based on photographic or video evidence published by reputable state-controlled media (such as Xinhua News Agency or CCTV) or major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, AFP).

• If multiple meetings occur during the visit, the tie color during the first official bilateral meeting between Xi and Cheng will be used.

• If no meeting between Xi Jinping and Cheng Li-wun takes place during her trip (April 7–12, 2026), the market will resolve to "No Meeting."

• If the tie is patterned or multi-colored, the dominant color will determine the resolution.

• If a colour not listed is worn, if no dominant color can be reasonably determined, or if the tie color is ambiguous, the "Other Colour" option will be chosen.

• Every effort will be made to shoehorn a colour into a listed category. Violet is purple, maroon is red etc.

• I will not bet and will determine the colour worn.

Background

KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wun is visiting mainland China from April 7 to April 12, 2026. While the trip includes stops in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Beijing, and a meeting with Xi Jinping is widely anticipated by analysts and media, it has not been officially confirmed at the time of the market's creation.

This visit marks the first time a sitting KMT chairperson has traveled to the mainland since 2016. The event is politically sensitive, as the KMT has been involved in a legislative stalemate regarding a major defense budget proposal in Taiwan, leading to criticism from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) regarding the timing and nature of the engagement. As this is a dependent multiple-choice market, it will resolve to "No Meeting" if the anticipated encounter does not occur.

This description was generated by AI.