Joshua Gale's calibration
Grade: D, Score: -9.7
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Joshua Gale bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
60%
70%
- Will Josh hold his breath underwater for 40 seconds or more during the 2022 Florida Trip?YESṀ100
- Will I have the most profit on the leaderboard of the Gale Family group by end of 2023?NOṀ100
- If I purchase a knock-off pro Switch controller (link in description), will I regret not buying the Pro Controller directly from Nintendo within a month?NOṀ100
80%
- If I purchase a knock-off pro Switch controller (link in description), will I regret not buying the Pro Controller directly from Nintendo within a month?NOṀ100
- If I purchase a knock-off pro Switch controller (link in description), will I regret not buying the Pro Controller directly from Nintendo within a month?NOṀ40
- Will Josh hold his breath underwater for 40 seconds or more during the 2022 Florida Trip?YESṀ30
90%
95%
97%