Will I get accepted into a prime number of colleges?
26
124
530
resolved May 31
Resolved
NO

Colleges I am waitlisted to do not count towards resolution unless I am later taken off the wait-list and accepted. Resolves as expected.

For context: I applied to the following schools as a Computer Science major in the Arts and Sciences College (i.e. when given the choice between a BS and a BA I always chose a BA)

  • MIT

  • Lehigh University

  • Duke University

  • Dartmouth College

  • Johns Hopkins University

  • Tufts University

  • Stevens Institute of Technology

  • Boston College

  • Lawrence University

  • Worcester Polytechnic Institute

  • Rose-Hulmann Institute of Technology

  • Northeastern University

  • Cal Poly: San Luis Obispo

  • Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  • University of San Diego

  • UC Berkley

  • UC Davis

  • UC Irvine

  • UC San Diego

  • UCSB

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

9 colleges,,, 9 is not prime, in fact,, it’s composite

predicted NO

@JoshuaB I didn't realize when I made this market that I wouldn't wanna share which colleges I got into so live betting was a lot less spicy than it could've been!

predicted NO

Soooo... UC Merced sent me an email saying that I’ve been admitted... I didn’t apply, I believe I got admitted since I was rejected by all the UCs I did apply to (I’ve heard this is a thing the UC system does). Anyways, I have no idea whether or not to count this towards the count... My instinct is no, since it wasn’t on the list, but I can also see the argument of “you were admitted! that’s being accepted! it should count!"

So, idk, opinions would be welcome!

@JoshuaB Okay, UC Merced has sent me an email saying that I've been accepted rather than simply admitted so I'm gonna count UC Merced towards the total (unless one of y'all compellingly convinces me to change my mind)

@JoshuaB and that brings to total to ?

No Carnegie Mellon?

bought Ṁ30 of YES

I think 7 is reasonable.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

There’s 20 colleges there, so if I get rejected from either One, Three, Seven, Nine, 13, 15, 17, or 18 colleges this market will resolve YES.

I honestly have no idea what’s the EV for number of colleges... so uh, “have fun betting"