Resolves N/A if he announces that he's not running (UPDATE: since he has announced that he is running this market will not resolve N/A based on this clause). Otherwise resolves based on who is nominated at the 2024 DNC.
Technically the following two markets should tell us the implied odds for this market:
(as of market creation 0.74/0.79 ≈ 0.93)
However, since the implied odds have fluctuated substantially, I'm creating a separate market which should (in theory) be more stable.
See Also:
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ6,260 | |
2 | Ṁ3,713 | |
3 | Ṁ2,564 | |
4 | Ṁ2,251 | |
5 | Ṁ998 |
Polymarket, a real-money market with $2 million total bet, gives biden 73% odds.
electionbettingodds.com, synthesizing $6 million in real-money bets from Betfair, Predictit, and Smarkets, gives biden 70% odds.
So I would appreciate if somebody could explain to me: what is the secret rationalist alpha that justifies our being 10%+ more optimistic about our pal Joe?
@JonathanRay This is a very good question,,, I think that it shouldn't matter for the resolution of this market, since I wrote "he's not running" which should not think should include "he's no longer running." Thanks for the catch! (if anyone was trading based on this market resolving N/A if he announces he’s no longer running, I’m happy to provide refunds or whatever)