If Joe Biden runs for the 2024 Democratic Nomination, will he be the nominee?
58
377
1.2K
Dec 31
95%
chance

Resolves N/A if he announces that he's not running (UPDATE: since he has announced that he is running this market will not resolve N/A based on this clause). Otherwise resolves based on who is nominated at the 2024 DNC.

Technically the following two markets should tell us the implied odds for this market:

(as of market creation 0.74/0.79 ≈ 0.93)

However, since the implied odds have fluctuated substantially, I'm creating a separate market which should (in theory) be more stable.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

Polymarket, a real-money market with $2 million total bet, gives biden 73% odds.

electionbettingodds.com, synthesizing $6 million in real-money bets from Betfair, Predictit, and Smarkets, gives biden 70% odds.

So I would appreciate if somebody could explain to me: what is the secret rationalist alpha that justifies our being 10%+ more optimistic about our pal Joe?

Biden has announced that he is running, so this should be an identical market to the market on whether or not he will be the nominee.

predicts YES

@Gabrielle Yup, as market creator, this is true.

predicts YES

@JoshuaB what if biden changes his mind about running

predicts YES

@JonathanRay This is a very good question,,, I think that it shouldn't matter for the resolution of this market, since I wrote "he's not running" which should not think should include "he's no longer running." Thanks for the catch! (if anyone was trading based on this market resolving N/A if he announces he’s no longer running, I’m happy to provide refunds or whatever)