Resolves N/A if he announces that he's not running (UPDATE: since he has announced that he is running this market will not resolve N/A based on this clause). Otherwise resolves based on who is nominated at the 2024 DNC.
Technically the following two markets should tell us the implied odds for this market:
(as of market creation 0.74/0.79 ≈ 0.93)
However, since the implied odds have fluctuated substantially, I'm creating a separate market which should (in theory) be more stable.
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Related questions
Polymarket, a real-money market with $2 million total bet, gives biden 73% odds.
electionbettingodds.com, synthesizing $6 million in real-money bets from Betfair, Predictit, and Smarkets, gives biden 70% odds.
So I would appreciate if somebody could explain to me: what is the secret rationalist alpha that justifies our being 10%+ more optimistic about our pal Joe?
@JonathanRay This is a very good question,,, I think that it shouldn't matter for the resolution of this market, since I wrote "he's not running" which should not think should include "he's no longer running." Thanks for the catch! (if anyone was trading based on this market resolving N/A if he announces he’s no longer running, I’m happy to provide refunds or whatever)