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Ah, the days of boys galore

Resolves NO:

Gonna resolve after the celebratory roll call

Sorry can’t resolve by description yet

I don't like that those other markets resolved, honestly! I would buy Biden at 0.3%. Suppose Harris flames out for some reason and there's total chaos on who to pick?

This can resolve now.

Missed that message. I was leaving this open until the convention, just to strictly follow the market description. Haven’t read too closely, is it possible for them to nominate someone else after the virtual roll call? If not, I’d feel comfortable resolving

Polymarket, a real-money market with $2 million total bet, gives biden 73% odds.

electionbettingodds.com, synthesizing $6 million in real-money bets from Betfair, Predictit, and Smarkets, gives biden 70% odds.

So I would appreciate if somebody could explain to me: what is the secret rationalist alpha that justifies our being 10%+ more optimistic about our pal Joe?

Biden has announced that he is running, so this should be an identical market to the market on whether or not he will be the nominee.

@Gabrielle Yup, as market creator, this is true.

@JoshuaB what if biden changes his mind about running

@JonathanRay This is a very good question,,, I think that it shouldn't matter for the resolution of this market, since I wrote "he's not running" which should not think should include "he's no longer running." Thanks for the catch! (if anyone was trading based on this market resolving N/A if he announces he’s no longer running, I’m happy to provide refunds or whatever)