1
If Joe Biden runs for the 2024 Democratic Nomination, will he be the nominee?
JoshuaB avatar
Joshua
32
closes 2024
89%
chance

Resolves N/A if he announces that he's not running. Otherwise resolves based on who is nominated at the 2024 DNC.

Technically the following two markets should tell us the implied odds for this market:

(as of market creation 0.74/0.79 ≈ 0.93)

However, since the implied odds have fluctuated substantially, I'm creating a separate market which should (in theory) be more stable.

See Also:

2024 US Presidential Election
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Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle

Biden has announced that he is running, so this should be an identical market to the market on whether or not he will be the nominee.

JoshuaB avatar
Joshuais predicting YES at 91%

@Gabrielle Yup, as market creator, this is true.

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