Joshua Anderson's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.65
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Joshua Anderson bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
- 38. Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2023?NOṀ200
- Will we find out that a major political speech was written by an AI tool such as ChatGPT before the end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
50%
60%
- Will Conjecture produce work that I believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will there be more than 11 tropical storms with hurricane force winds during the 2023 hurricane season (June-November)?NOṀ70
- Will there be more hurricanes in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season than in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season?NOṀ59
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will this market (open for a few hours) have more than (>) 20 unique traders?YESṀ192
- Will we find out that a major political speech was written by an AI tool such as ChatGPT before the end of 2023?YESṀ167
- Will there be an easy way to generate secure, verifiable public randomness for Manifold by end of 2022?YESṀ50