Will Trump be ordered by a judge to cease all public communications about a case and the people involved during 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Has to be a total gag order, where he's not allowed to say anything positive or negative about the case in any public way.

The order must be at least as severe as the Roger Stone gag order as described by Politico here:

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Most likely they would need to remand Trump to stop him from saying whatever he wants.

Another partial order, doesn't meet the standard of the Stone order though

@Joshua Would you say it would meet the Stone standard if the following statement said the following: "Consider this statement an order forbidding all parties from posting, emailing or speaking publicly about the case" rather than how it currently is stated as the following: "Consider this statement an order forbidding all parties from posting, emailing or speaking publicly about any members of my staff"?

Without getting into all the legal technicalities, the core thing missing from all these orders is that Trump is allowed to talk about the case and the charges as a whole, just not some of the people involved. Stone was barred from saying anything about any part of the case.

@Joshua So a complete "Shut the fuck up" basically.

Derrick Lewis Sport GIF by UFC

trump got a limited gag order according to nyt

Alas, it appears this was not arbitrage.

@Joshua Maybe the real arbitrage was the friends we made along the way.

predictedNO

I'm an American lawyer who is pretty anti-Trump and I think this market is WAY too high. The description of the market seems to describe a very broad gag order ("cease all public communications about the case").

I think Trump will continue to be subject to narrow gag orders similar to the one Jack Smith is seeking in the DC case, but that only prohibits threatening or disparaging, not all public communication.

The idea that you are going to get a judge to order a presidential candidate to not say anything at all about an issue of public concern is....wild to me.

predictedNO

I see we're getting arbitrage here now, excellent!

Recommend explicitly citing the Stone gag order as a reference for what constitutes a "YES" here.

Updated, yeah that was what BTE cited to nico as what he meant.

See this market by BTE, where I think this is the criteria per his comments but it's not clear. These are pure arbitrage if I'm correct:

predictedNO

@BTE can you comment on whether this market is the same as your market?

Some other fun related markets:

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