Prize Market
This market resolves YES if there is footage of Trump and Biden shaking hands at their first debate in June.
This market is intended to be about the scheduled CNN debate on June 27th, but would also include if that debate were rescheduled or cancelled or cancelled and replaced with another debate, so long as it happens in June 2024.
If they do not shake hands on the day of their debate, or if there is no debate in June, this market resolves NO. This market will be scheduled to close just before the debate, and will resolve the day after.
A handshake is a globally widespread, brief greeting or parting tradition in which two people grasp one of each other's hands, and in most cases, it is accompanied by a brief up-and-down movement of the grasped hands.
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๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน14,028 | |
| 2 | แน10,094 | |
| 3 | แน6,297 | |
| 4 | แน5,688 | |
| 5 | แน5,182 |
May the fastest fingers win (a trivial amount of mana):
@Predictor I've gotchu: /Ziddletwix/live-trading-allowed-will-trump-and
Play tier mirror, no early closing, live trade away (with minimal stakes obviously, this ain't a charity)
Sorry, but WaPo says the public agrees with that Trump claim:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/26/biden-trump-swing-state-poll-democracy/
This market will be scheduled to close just before the debate. What is the issue? People on Manifold are so fucking weird. Just because it is open a little longer doesn't mean your profit or loss will be any different. It's like that complex where you want to see other people suffer. I'm grateful it was opened back up. I thought I could still place a bet before the debate today and now I can.
@voodoo I'm curious what you mean by messing with the market's premise. do you have a reason to believe this market is somehow negatively impacted by leaving it open for trading until the debate? the intention is still to close it before the debate starts.
@shankypanky as a principle I think a market should not change without strong reasons for it to. There is a non zero chance that material information emerge in the additional 14 or so hours the market was reopened for and that's a chance that didn't exist with the original market criteria.
Usually when market creators want to extend a market they start a comment thread about it.
Reopening a market because people just woke up and "tuned in" today is just arbitrary and sets no clear boundary for when markets can and should change.