Will LK-99 be unambiguously listed as a room-temperature superconductor on Wikipedia by 2025? If so, when?
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Jan 2
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August-December 2023
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January-June 2024
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July-December 2024
95%
Not by 2025

There has been much talk about fair resolution criteria for superconductor markets lately.

I suggest that since none of us are real experts, we allow the fine folks at the internet's largest encyclopedia to sort all the minutia out for us.

Currently, the Wikipedia article lists LK-99 as "a potential room-temperature superconductor":

This market resolves once "potential" is dropped and the main LK-99 article consistently, unreservedly describes LK-99 as a superconductor at room-temperature and ambient pressure, for at least two weeks. It resolves to the period of time in which Wikipedia began to state this.

Likewise, if the Wikipedia article definitively states that LK-99 is /not/ a RT/AP Superconductor for at least two weeks, this market resolves to "not by 2025".

If the Wikipedia article continues to be ambiguous at market close, this also resolves to "not by 2025".

I will not trade in this market.

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DMs are open if anyone with a lot of Wikipedia experience has suggestions for refinements to exact resolution criteria here. The spirit of the market is obviously to ignore any vandalism.