Will Elon announce before June that he's bringing back Vine?
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Jun 2
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Any announcement before June 1st from Elon or X that they are going to use the Vine branding for any kind of short-form video content, either on the X app or separate from it, will resolve this market YES.

If there is no such announcement before June, this market resolves NO.

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All that this needs is an announcement, right? No date or anything like that? Just him saying "ok cool. We're bringing back vine"?

@Marnix haha I think for Elon in particular the bar needs to be higher than that, e.g. a statement from the official X account rather than vague wording from his own.

Edit: hmm yeah probably not because of question wording. Elon account should be enough, but "announce" still seems stronger than him saying "we'll do this", considering his track record.

@HenriThunberg I mean, the market DOES say "Elon"...

@Marnix hmm my edited comment didn't stick. I take back the above, Elon's account is enough. But maybe "announce" needs something stronger when it comes to Elon than a "YES we'll do this", e.g. mentioning anything of things like release date, confirm that it's being worked on, shape it will take.

Also think it's fine if your example qualifies YES, but would suggest a higher bar.

@HenriThunberg Yeah I'm intending to take Elon at his word, but I would agree that there is some difference between an actual announcement and, for example, him leaving a thumbs after the poll closes.

@Joshua So him saying some "vox populi vox dei" crap after the poll WOULDN'T count, right

@Marnix Yeah if that's all he says, I don't think that's an announcement. We already know he is interested in doing this, an announcement would be new information that he is actually doing it.

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