Will Biden be 40% or higher on Polymarket on any day before July 1st?
Jul 1

Resolves based on the main 2024 US Presidential Election Polymarket:

I'll resolve based on the price graph which shows what the price for YES shares was each past day. I'll resolve based on what is displayed to me, in PST. This is just based on the graph for YES price, not the NO price.

In any ambiguous situation where the answer is not clearly YES, such as Polymarket crashing or something, I'll resolve to NO. Market resolves early to YES if the criteria are met, or otherwise remains open until July and then resolves NO.

The last time Biden was at 40% was May 22nd, the last time he was at 39% was June 1st. As of market creation he is at 34%.

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