In past elections, the shortlist for a presidential candidate's running mate has often leaked to the press. This question assumes that Donald Trump will announce a running mate for the 2024 election, and that a final shortlist of his possible choices will be known at some point before the end of the year. If we don't get a shortlist before the end of the year, all options in this market resolve N/A except for his actual VP pick, which will resolve Yes.

If we do get a final shortlist, all names on that final shortlist will resolve "yes" and all others will resolve "no". I may wait as long as the end of the year to be sure that this market resolves on the most accurate and final shortlist.

In cases of ambiguity, Wikipedia will be used as the final arbiter of who was on the final shortlist. They have articles for past VP selections, which you can find below:

2008 Obama Shortlist

2008 McCain Shortlist

2012 Romney Shortlist

2016 Clinton Shortlist

2016 Trump Shortlist

2020 Biden Shortlist

In most scenarios, I would expect Trump's shortlist to leak sometime before July, for Trump to announce his pick shortly after, and then for this market to resolve after his pick is announced.

Note that this resolves only to FINAL shortlist. It's normal for us to get early reports of people being considered, but then for us to later learn the list has been narrowed down to just three or four people. If that happens again, this only resolves to those few people being considered before the final choice is made.