Who will be on the final shortlist for Trump's 2024 Vice Presidential Running Mate?
67
589
3.3K
2025
86%
Kristi Noem (Governor of South Dakota)
84%
Tim Scott (Senator from South Carolina)
69%
Elise Stefanik (Chair of the House Republican Conference)
66%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Governer of Arkansas)
62%
J. D. Vance
44%
Doug Burgum (Governor, North Dakota)
39%
Tulsi Gabbard (Congresswoman, army officer)
37%
Katie Britt (US Senator, Alabama)
35%
Vivek Ramaswamy (Entrepreneur)
34%
Mike Pompeo (CIA Director, Secretary of State, US Rep, Army veteran)
23%
Byron Donalds (Florida congressman)
19%
Glenn Youngkin (Governor of Virginia)
12%
Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida)
11%
Kari Lake (former news anchor and former AZ US Senate candidate)
5%
Tucker Carlson (Media Personality)
5%
Nikki Haley (Former Governor of South Carolina)
5%
Matt Gaetz (Congressman, Florida)
4%
Devin Nunes (CEO of Truth Social)
4%
Newt Gingrich (Former Speaker of the House)
1.5%
Mike Pence (former Vice President)

In past elections, the shortlist for a presidential candidate's running mate has often leaked to the press. This question assumes that Donald Trump will announce a running mate for the 2024 election, and that a final shortlist of his possible choices will be known at some point before the end of the year. If we don't get a shortlist before the end of the year, all options in this market resolve N/A except for his actual VP pick, which will resolve Yes.

If we do get a final shortlist, all names on that final shortlist will resolve "yes" and all others will resolve "no". I may wait as long as the end of the year to be sure that this market resolves on the most accurate and final shortlist.

In cases of ambiguity, Wikipedia will be used as the final arbiter of who was on the final shortlist. They have articles for past VP selections, which you can find below:

2008 Obama Shortlist

2008 McCain Shortlist

2012 Romney Shortlist

2016 Clinton Shortlist

2016 Trump Shortlist

2020 Biden Shortlist

In most scenarios, I would expect Trump's shortlist to leak sometime before July, for Trump to announce his pick shortly after, and then for this market to resolve after his pick is announced.

Note that this resolves only to FINAL shortlist. It's normal for us to get early reports of people being considered, but then for us to later learn the list has been narrowed down to just three or four people. If that happens again, this only resolves to those few people being considered before the final choice is made.

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sold Ṁ20 of Newt Gingrich (Forme... NO

Another Market, this one bundling potential VPs together to give better odds than any one candidate:

It's free response so you can add your own bundles!

Vivek Ramaswamy (Entrepreneur)

it may be cope speaking but I simply cannot believe Trump would take anyone that dared against him, especially someone with such immense loser energy

bought Ṁ0 of Other than listed as... YES

People keep expecting Trump to behave predictably, which is the proverbial triumph of hope over experience.

Other than listed as of 1/20/2024

Nah you gotta be specific

reposted

I edited in job titles for all the people in this market, if you add anyone new please do the same! I also think this might be a good thing to do in other VP markets, or really any free response where we can save people a bit of googling.

I think we’re collectively overestimating the chances Republicans try to make party history when we’re already past peak DEI

https://manifold.markets/aashiq/will-the-republican-nominee-for-vic?r=YWFzaGlx

sold Ṁ20 of Newt Gingrich (Forme... NO

Hmmm is this subjective enough that I shouldn't trade in the market? I think Wikipedia was pretty clear about past years but there is the potential for ambiguity.

I think I'd like to allow myself to trade, but I'll hold off for now just to see what the market thinks.