Has Biden bottomed? (In the RCP polling average)
Nov 7

In the RCP's Biden vs Trump polling average, the lowest Biden has ever been was 42.6% on May 10th, 2023.

Several times he has gotten very close to this number, including recently when was at 43.0% on Jan 26th, 2024.

If Biden's polling in the RCP Biden vs Trump average is ever lower than 42.6% before election day, this market resolves No. Otherwise, this market resolves Yes.

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He has more top vibes.

What happens if he's not longer the nominee and RCP drops their coverage?

If he drops out without having his polls ever below this previous low then this market would resolve yes.

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The number of undecided voters will only shrink over time. Pretty unlikely that he'll go back down to such a low percentage when there are few undecideds left.

@PlasmaBallin Makes sense. There's usually a bit of shrinkage when bottoming (in the polls)

Surprised Dalle was fine with this title

@jskf I think it did a pretty good job too!

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