In the RCP's Biden vs Trump polling average, the lowest Biden has ever been was 42.6% on May 10th, 2023.

Several times he has gotten very close to this number, including recently when was at 43.0% on Jan 26th, 2024.

If Biden's polling in the RCP Biden vs Trump average is ever lower than 42.6% before election day, this market resolves No. Otherwise, this market resolves Yes.