What is the best strategy in D&D.Sci June 2022?

Basic

Ṁ171

resolved Jun 13

36%25%

Barrier Conjuration + Temporal Distortion

35%24%

Anomalous Agility + Temporal Distortion

29%20%

Temporal Distortion + Monstrous Regeneration

24%Other

Enlightenment + Radiant Splendor

0.0%

More than one answer will be tied for best

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FjgS5mZCQedarYdCb/d-and-d-sci-june-2022-a-goddess-tried-to-reincarnate-me-into I will resolve to whichever option listed in this market performs best, even if there is a strategy not listed here which is better. Close date updated to 2022-06-12 11:59 pm Jun 6, 6:16pm: I've initialized the market with the two strategies that people have picked in comments on the LW thread, but feel free to add your own answers if you think another strategy is better. Jun 10, 7:10pm: If multiple strategies posted here are tied for best, I will resolve to all of them. Weighted based on their respective bet amounts because I think that gives the fewest weird incentives. Jun 10, 7:23pm: *market probabilities*, not bet amounts

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Since Radiant Splendor + Enlightenment was not a good choice, I don't understand why I got +money from this market.

@phi You bought more of the other one + ante subsidized everyone.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WvvX2KX2zavNtTBDA/d-and-d-sci-june-2022-evaluation-and-ruleset Temporal Distortion + [Barrier Conjuration, Anomalous Agility, Monstrous Regeneration] were all equally good. (A further combination that no one posted here also scored the same as those three.)

@AndrewHyer UI looks like this: https://imgur.com/a/uHNDYwm

@Multicore Huh, really?

Manifold allows you to choose multiple things to resolve to and how to weight them. I disqualify this answer.

My personal highest probability is that "Temporal Distortion plus any one of Anomalous Agility, Barrier Conjuration and Monstrous Regeneration " will be a three-way tie for the best strategy. I've put this in as a more general statement because I feel the market should have something it resolves to in the event of an exact tie

aphyer posted today that he was picking this after posting the longest analysis on the thread.

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