Will Geert Wilders be the Dutch Prime Minister at any point in 2024?

Should be self explanatory.

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predicts YES

Should this market close at the end of 2024? Currently it's set to close at the start.

predicts NO

Dutch people participating in this market:
3 Dutchmen hold 160 Yes
6 Dutchmen hold 900 No

predicts NO

@WieDan The main reason I'm not betting this down to 10% is that the formation of a coalition is looking pretty hopeless so it could take 6 months and I don't want to commit for that long.

predicts YES

@WieDan Oof, maybe I'm being foolish.

There is absolutely no way Omtzigt and Jesilgos will make Wilders prime minister and serve under Wilders I. It would be a humiliation and nobody will ever forgive them for doing it so they'd be tainted forever. I really can't see the case for him at all.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 32%

Can someone help me understand why this market is (at time of writing) at 88% while other markets on who will be PM after the election are around 34-45% for him? Is it because someone else is expected to become PM soon and he'll take power later because of some quirk of the Netherlands electoral system? Or is this market just new?




@DanMan314 I will arb these soon

@DanMan314 it's because the market was just created, presumably almost nobody had bet on it yet

@DanMan314 This market was made by an American and actual Dutch people are active on the other markets.

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