if it doesn’t happen this year that makes it a virtual certainty for next year

"If there's even a one percent chance, we have to treat it as an absolute certainty."

Bet yes because of an extrapolation from current data.

If you look at a graph of his age, it has steadily increased over time. This has been dubbed Jimmy's law. We have good reason to assume Carter will soon be capable of self-replicating given that he has shown himself capable of building.

The orthogonality thesis states that intelligence and goals are independent, so we should not assume Carter will gain morality. It should be assumed that a self-replicating Jimmy Carter would turn the whole world into houses.

My models have this occuring around 2027, but I think this market is undervalued given this result is only a standard deviation out of line from my predictions.

@VerySeriousPoster I love you

@VerySeriousPoster But in order to be a "house", could one not argue that it must be occupied? I think you're missing the possibility that Carter believes this, and the human-house population will reach equilibrium. My models foresee this happening by 2025 at the latest.

I, too, saw "Impossible Histories" in a Barnes&Noble