Will any binary market reach NaN%?
17
310Ṁ6647
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Although /cloudprism/will-any-market-reach-nan resolved YES, we still have not learned whether it is actually possible to bet so much on a market that the probability displays as NaN%, since that market resolved due to a deprecated market type displaying "Resolved NaN", which is a distinct glitch.

The glitch I'm talking about is this one:

This market will resolve YES if the probability of any market of the "Yes / No" market type displays as NaN% as a result of the glitch above (a large amount of mana being bet on one option and somehow destroying the probability calculation), and I receive evidence of this before close. Other glitches that cause it to display NaN% will not count.

Clarifications:

  • If this has already happened, I will count it as a YES if I find out about it before close.

  • All binary markets count for this, including delisted or private ones, but I have to receive proof that they really do say NaN% before close.

  • It still counts even if the probability only says NaN (rather than NaN%) or some equivalent. If it displays a non-numerical probability like "Error%" or just "%", I will also count it as long as it's clear that it was caused by the glitch in the image above.

  • In reference to the point above: If there is significant doubt as to whether it is caused by the glitch above, I may resolve to a probability or N/A.

  • It must display on the main page for the market itself to qualify for a YES resolution. However, I will resolve to 50% if a market's probability is displayed as NaN% in search or embeddings, but not on its main page.

  • This is about whether the actual probability is displayed as NaN%, not whether the betting interface says that it hypothetically would be NaN% if you bet enough. The latter is already the case, since that's the glitch in question.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ140
2Ṁ119
3Ṁ91
4Ṁ77
5Ṁ69
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy