Manifold Plays Chomp: First move
resolved Oct 9

The rules of Chomp are simple. The first player chooses one spot on the board and removes all squares that are at least as high and at least as far right as it (i.e., all squares for which both coordinates are gretare than or equal to the corresponding coordinates of the chosen square). The goal is to avoid having to eat the poison square (i.e., you don't want it to be your turn when only the ☠️ square is left). Manifold will be Player 1, and Player 2 will be a computer player. The board starts as a 4x7 grid, as seen below:

Which square should be selected for the first move? Out of all the answers that express valid moves, the top three will be selected as contenders when the market closes. Then I'll make conditional markets asking whether Manifold will win, given that each contender is chosen, and chose the move that has the highest average probability in the conditional markets. This will continue until the game ends.

If you're confused about the rules, here's the wikipedia article on the game:

Note that Wikipedia uses a different convention where the poison square is in the top-left instead of the bottom-left, so its rules are vertically flipped relative to ours.

See also /JosephNoonan/can-manifold-beat-the-computer-at-c

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The market for the second move is now open

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Plasma Ballin'

The market to decide which move to choose are out!

(Note they are out of order because there is no rhythm or reason to the order in which grid embeds display).