Will any of the US's ten largest cities record an absolute record for high temperature in 2024?
Will any of the US's ten largest cities record an absolute record for high temperature in 2024?
10
170Ṁ456Jan 1
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any of the cities must break (not tie) its record for highest temperature.
Data will be sourced from extremeweatherwatch.com
Will close when the condition is met or on December 31, 2024, whichever is first.
Records that may be broken:
New York City (High: 106F)
Los Angeles (110)
Chicago (106)
Houston (109)
Phoenix (122)
Philadelphia (107)
San Antonio (111)
San Diego (111)
Dallas (115)
Austin (112)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.