Will I lose weight in 2023 if I abstain from sugar and flour?
12
48
αΉ€350
resolved May 30
Resolved
N/A

Conditional version of https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-i-lose-weight-in-2023

Resolves Yes if I decide to abstain and my weight on Dec 31 is less than my weight on Jan 15. Resolves No if I decide to abstain and my weight on Dec 31 is greater than or equal to my weight on Jan 15. Resolves NA immediately on Jan 15 if I decide not to abstain. If I decide to abstain and don't stick to it, it will resolve NA if it seems like I'm eating >50% as much flour and sugar as I normally would.

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I am trying to reduce my sugar and flour consumption by more than 50% but less than 80%

predicted YES

@JonathanRay that's not abstaining

bought αΉ€10 of YES

Like really cut sugar to 0? Or just reduce? If you don't manage to abstain does this resolve N/A?

@egroj Updated the description to clarify this

predicted YES

@JonathanRay I hope that you decide to abstain, I'm sure that will make you lose weight (plus a lot of other very healthy outcomes).

Being forced to think about what you meant to meet an arbitrary restriction helps food control overall, so yes

bought αΉ€2 of YES

How much weight do you have to lose?

predicted YES

@ZZZZZZ What if you're only a microgram lighter?

@ZZZZZZ Enough to move the lowest decimal place on my scale (tenths of a pound)

predicted YES

@JonathanRay What is your age?

@ZZZZZZ 37, M, 5'9", 155lbs

@JonathanRay your weight will vary more than that on a daily basis.

For purposes of this market, I am only measuring my weight on Jan 15 and Dec 31

the difference between the two markets, ideally, still isn't just "how useful is abstaining from sugar and flour", because bettors might say "the kind of person who will lose weight is more likely to abstsain from sugar and flour than the kind who doesn't", knowing nothing about you