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I just weighed in at 155. Resolving NO. I a lot of social events and travel put me in obesogenic environments.

@JonathanRay "This market is partly a way of incentivising myself."

Doesn't betting NO remove your incentive?

@DeadRhino yeah, but by that point my odds of succeeding were ~0 regardless of incentives

in the first week I lost 3 pounds, but in the second week I gained 1 pound due to parties and restaurants missing a couple of workouts and my gf trying to feed me chips and banana bread.

Given a lb of fat is roughly 3,500 calories and 42 days from market start, you would have be at ~834 calorie/day deficit. Consensus research suggests a >500 calorie/day deficit is generally unsuccessful for purely diet reasons.

is generally unsuccessful for purely diet reasons.

What does purely diet reasons mean? Like, people don't sustain it because it's too unpleasant?

@jacksonpolack Yes, exactly. Too unpleasant to sustain for extended periods. @JonathanRay could hit the goal with a less aggressive diet and just a heavy cutting water weight reduction. I’d really like to see a “and remain at or below that final weight for another 15 days”. That said, I only bet 10 and I hope it works out

@EdwardOrsi He'd lose 2 lbs from the get go just from glycogen and water. Also depends upon where is set point is at. At 5'10" 159 lbs, he's probably around his set point. That said, when I was above my set point at 192 lbs 5'11, I was able to rapidly lose weight to 180 lbs in about a month after resuming exercise (and keep it off).