Conditional on the 2024 election being a Trump-Biden rematch, will Trump win?
57
12k
2025
52%
chance

Resolves N/A if it is not a Trump-Biden rematch. Winner is whoever CNN/WSJ/NYT declare the winner of the election

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Points for YES:

Points for NO:

  • 538's 2020 model had Biden at 90% towards the end.

  • Biden will now be incumbent.

  • Jan 6. happened after the election, potentially giving more voters a serious reason to dislike Trump.

Don't incumbents consistently underperform their last election? How is that a point for no?

@jacksonpolack I wouldn't say it's causal, but yes there is a relationship there. My bet would be that if we had N=10,000, we would find a very small (<1 point) incumbent advantage.

predicts NO

@jacksonpolack In the majority of cases in recent decades, incumbents have won when they run.

predicts YES

@BoltonBailey this has selection bias though - incumbents are people who have already proven they can win, this doesn't necessarily mean there's an advantage

predicts YES

In the majority of cases in recent decades, incumbents have won when they run.

Their margins are consistently lower is the point

/MartinRandall/trump-vs-biden-2024

Above market currently implies a major Trump advantage in a rematch, but has fewer bettors. Still, I think 30% is wishful thinking.

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