Resolves N/A if it is not a Trump-Biden rematch. Winner is whoever CNN/WSJ/NYT declare the winner of the election
Related questions
Points for YES:
Biden's 538 approval rating is around where Trump's was at this point of his presidency
Points for NO:
538's 2020 model had Biden at 90% towards the end.
Biden will now be incumbent.
Jan 6. happened after the election, potentially giving more voters a serious reason to dislike Trump.
@jacksonpolack I wouldn't say it's causal, but yes there is a relationship there. My bet would be that if we had N=10,000, we would find a very small (<1 point) incumbent advantage.
@jacksonpolack In the majority of cases in recent decades, incumbents have won when they run.
@BoltonBailey this has selection bias though - incumbents are people who have already proven they can win, this doesn't necessarily mean there's an advantage
/MartinRandall/trump-vs-biden-2024
Above market currently implies a major Trump advantage in a rematch, but has fewer bettors. Still, I think 30% is wishful thinking.