Will a $2 Billion Mega Millions jackpot be won in the month of August?
26
351
510
resolved Aug 10
Resolved
NO

As long as the jackpot amount reaches $2 billion this will resolve to YES even if the winner takes a lump sum instead of installments.

A winner with a jackpot of anything less than $2 billion by the end of August 2023 will result in a NO.

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predicted NO

this SHOULD be able to resolve NO @JonathanBoswell

predicted YES

oh wait, what happens if the jackpot is split?

@AlQuinn As long as the total jackpot reaches $2 Billion this will resolve YES regardless on the number of winners.

sold Ṁ88 of YES

@JonathanBoswell ah, right, just checked and will have to have 2 loses (probably) until winner so my math below was dumb. but i'm generally dumb; just glad i assumed the multi-winner part in right direction 🐢

@AlQuinn Don’t think your math is dumb! I think the excitement around the jackpot might grow it to $2 Billion with just 1 more loss. Will be fun and interesting to see what happens!

bought Ṁ20 of YES

ridiculous. of course it very likely will. as jackpot grows, marginal players get drawn in increasingly and the odds of a winner in any single drawing goes up significantly. 2 drawings per week means there are 7 drawings for there to be a winner, with play rates at those jackpot sizes resulting in winner odds of >30% per drawing. This results in there being a winner with >90% likelihood by the end of the month.