Jonas Vollmer's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.9
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jonas Vollmer bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
60%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ408
- [Anti-Whale Aktion] Will the final point difference in Isaac King's Whales vs Minnows market be greater than 100?YESṀ10
- Will I think that running the Lurkshop was a good idea on Feb 1st 2023?YESṀ10
70%
80%
- Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?YESṀ417
- [Anti-Whale Aktion] Will the final point difference in Isaac King's Whales vs Minnows market be greater than 20?YESṀ84