# Jonas Vollmer's calibration

Grade: A-, Score: -0.85

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jonas Vollmer bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

3%

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

- Will the Sam Bankman-Fried Trial last into 2024? [dup of another]YESṀ1,000
- Will Sam Altman sign a formal agreement to return to OpenAI as described below before NYSE opens Monday?NOṀ500
- Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2023?YESṀ500

90%

95%

97%